I noticed this on a few of my own playthrus since the most recent updates (Regular difficulty, no gameplay mods, Ironman, Western hemisphere so minimal influence in Europe), so I tried a couple observation games to see if I was just having weird luck, but still get the same result every time:

1. In general Axis powers are declaring wars & doing major moves months ahead of historically.
2. Barbarossa stalls out somewhere in the Baltics & around Odessa, Axis rarely can even take Kiev or Minsk before USSR starts pushing them back. Gets nowhere near Leningrad or Moscow. Whatever the combo of army AI & Axis/USSR unit composition is, Axis just can't seem to push at all and Soviets are able to stabilize way too early. Finns often but not always get knocked out of the war by the end of 1941 or early 1942.

In the most recent observation game I tried, I noticed Germany is running massive deficits of Inf & Support Equipment and similar supplies, yet producing WAY too many trains. I'm familiar with HOI's AI limitations, but it really does seem Paradox really messed it up recently compared to before.

I assume there are exceptions, but IIRC the above has happened 7 out of 7 playthrus for me. Even if I'm playing in a different part of the world it kind of kills the immersion & the sense that an epic struggle is happening around you.

Anyone else getting this in most vanilla games?